Key Points for profitable MMA betting part 1

Betting on the UFC: Finding value in MMA betting

Key points

Styles make matches

“Styles make matches.” You have probably heard this phrase used several times before if you watch any combat sport. As a MMA bettor then how do we compare the skill sets of two fighters and predict an outcome. If we break down MMA into simple skill sets we have striking ability, Wrestling ability, Ground game ability. Other key factors are also athleticism and endurance. 

We can then further break this down. Standup ability compromises of boxing, muay Thai and striking on the ground. Wrestling ability becomes, takedown offence, takedown defence, wrestling in the clinch, scrambling ability. Grappling ability becomes Submission offence, submission defence, top position, bottom position.

You can then break things down even more looking at a fighters proficiency in individual techniques however you would need to have a lot of video on the two competitors to analyze this effectively. So we can see that in matching up two fighters styles there is a large amount for us to research and it is important that you understand how each skill set matches up for the two fighters. This can only be done through experience and by watching as much MMA as possible to develop a good understanding.

Here is how I broke down a recent fight between Demain Maia and Jon Fitch. 

So first off I looked at the striking of the two. My first thoughts were that neither fighter had a definitive edge is this area, although both were proficient neither fighter has any notable TKO wins on their records and from watching the two compete I had not seen anything that would indicate either man would get a knockout. After doing some more research I believed that Fitch’s boxing was a little crisper then Maia’s so I gave a very small edge to Fitch in striking. Next up was wrestling. Fitch is known for his grinding style and usually uses constant pressure alongside with good technique that he tenaciously applies to get his opponents to the ground. Maia’s overall grappling ability though negates Fitch’s usual strategy with Maia being the more proficient and dangerous grappler of the two. So although Fitch had an edge in wrestling Maia’s pure grappling game gave him a sizable edge of Fitch in overall grappling. Fitch also had shown a tendency to open himself up to submission attempts in order to advance his position. Maia is probably the highly touted jiu jitsu practitioner in all of MMA which meant that Fitch would have to adapt this aspect of his ground game to be successful in the fight.

In comparing the two fighters athleticism I gave the edge to Maia, as successful as Fitch has been in the UFC he's does not possess great athletic ability. He is not particularly fast or explosive, I believed that Maia was the quicker of the two competitor of the two.

Overall endurance I had to go with Fitch just based on his previous fights at welterweight and the fact that both Maia's fights had been short at welterweight and he had shown cardio problems in bouts at middleweight.

After breaking down the skill sets I concluded that Fitch's best way to win the fight would be to keep it the fight standing, wear Maia out against the cage and avoid going to the ground with Maia on route to a decision win. Maia's best strategy would be to engage Fitch in a grappling contest and look for submission attempts on dominant control. The fact that Fitch would have to alter his usual game plan and be out of his comfort zone made me believe that Maia had the overall edge in fight. Percentage wise I believed that Maia was around a 60% favorite compared to Fitch who had around a 40% shot at winning.

At fight time Maia was available to back at +160 nearly a 2 to 1 underdog whilst Fitch was at -170. This means that the bookies gave Maia a 38.5% chance of winning whilst Fitch's chance were deemed to be 63%.

So clearly from my own analysis I believed that this line was wrong and so I backed Demain Maia. This how I break down all of the fights that I bet on and in this case I was right and Maia took home a decision victory giving me a decent profit.



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