Monday, 18 February 2013

Dealing with losses/Variance

After going 0-2 on my bets this weekend it seems fitting to do an article on the importance of dealing with losses and encountering variance during your betting career. So how we do we deal with losing and what is variance?  Variance is the difference between what is expected and the actuals. it is the difference between "should take" and "did take."
The deviation from the actuals is called variance. Variance can be of two types positive and negative.
Anyone who has ever invested heavily in sports betting or poker will have encountered runs of positive and negative variance. It is a hugely uplifting feeling to go on an 8-0 upwards winning steak, it seems that every bet you make comes off and you are printing money. When you go 0-8 however it is hugely demoralizing, a run like this can ruin even the most talented of sports investor as it can mentally break you and release negative habits.

So what measures do we put in place to make sure that a losing run does not ruin our betting bank.
Number 1 is to have a set amount of money that you use for your betting, this is known as your bankroll. This should be seen as an investment and will help you to maintain a professional outlook on betting.
Number 2 is to bet a percentage of your bankroll, If you adjust your betting to your bankroll amount then you alter your betting amount depending on how much money you have at the time. I would use 5% of my bankroll for a normal bet and 10% for a bet that I believe has a large expected value. As I only bet on 2 or 3 fights on a card I am not laying a big amount of my bankroll on the line in any one event.
Number 3 base your bets on the information you had beforehand and not on what the result is. This can be difficult after you see all 3-4 of your chosen fighters lose in a row, however if you are diligent in your research beforehand then you have done all you can as whatever happens in the cage/ring is out of your control.
Following these simple steps will allow you to deal with any negative variance.

As for this weekend Nedkov was looking promising against Watson as he landed big shots and secured his takedown's as was expected. Watson though was able to get back to his feet easier then I predicted and his  durability was what eventually won him the fight as he wore down Nedkov for the KO. This fight was extremely close so I still think taking the underdog is this fight was the right play. The second bet was on Cyril Diabate again this fight went as expected as Manuwa came out strong. Diabate survived the first round and had landed some hard knee's to the body which would have paid dividends in later rounds. Unfortunately Diabate tore his calf and was unable to continue. So I ended the event 0-2 but looking at how the fights played out it is merely a small bump in variance that comes along once in a while. Looking forward to the UFC 157 will have some analysis soon.

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