Key points to profitable MMA betting part 3

Betting on the UFC: Small factors add up to make big edges

When betting on an MMA match the first thing I will determine is how the skill sets of the fighters match up this will give me a general calculation of the win percentage of each fighter. After this however there are many factors that need to be analyzed.

Is the fight at altitude? If it is then does the fighter train at altitude?

As this can radically effect a fighters gameplan as well as how they perform during the fight if their cardiovascular system is not used/or used to altitude.Weight cut? Has there been any indication that a fighter has had a difficult weight cut, how does this relate to their gameplan? how does this relate to their opponents gameplan? A good example of this is when Thiago Alves fought Jon Fitch for the second time. Alves struggled making weight and as Fitch employs a grinding, wearing style an advantage went the way of Fitch.

Is the fight a 3 round or 5 round fight? Does this suit one fighter better then another? Who are the assigned judges for the event? Do they have a history of favouring certain styles or showing home bias? Is one of the fighters fighting in his hometown or home country?

Is a fighter close to a title shot? Does he/she have momentum on his/her side? How have they handled pressure in the past?

Occasionally rumors of injuries will emerge? How will the injury effect the fighter's performance? If a fighter relies on his wrestling and is rumored  to have a knee injury will he still be effective. A prime example of this is Rampage vs Bader. Rampage came into the fight with a knee injury which effected his ability to defend takedowns which subsequently lost him a decision.

Personal problems can effect a fighters performance. Are they recently divorced, expecting a baby very soon, just had a baby, had a family death anything that could majorly upset a fighter's camp or mindset needs to be looked at. When Forest Griffin fought Shogun for the second time his wife was expecting a baby in pre fight interviews Griffin seemed unfocused and unmotivated for this fight, he was knocked out fairly quickly. Jake Shield's father died fairly shortly before his fight with Jake Ellenberger  he was also knocked out fairly quickly. This is not always the case however if you can use this information alongside other factors you can determine whether it will have a negative effect on performance.

Sometimes information that could have helped you with your betting is not disclosed, which is understandable as competitive fighters do not want to show any weakness pre fight. But sometimes you will come across information that will help you in your betting. The best way to do this is to keep informed, read the news sites, twitter, facebook and watch pre fight interviews of the fighters.


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