Sunday, 30 June 2013

MMA betting resources

If you like watching UFC and would like to make money betting on UFC or any other MMA event then you need to have great resources to refer to. In order to make money from any sport you need to have the best information possible before placing your bet. I have mentioned arbitrage betting in previous posts as a great way to create small profits from MMA betting and here are a few betting resources that will aid you in making money from MMA betting. Also check out some of my previous posts to look at how to breakdown a fight and to estimate where the profitable bets are.
So if you enjoy betting on UFC or any MMA event that has betting lines available check out some of these links for valuable resources.
MMA Betting Professor
Key points for profitable MMA betting
SBR MMA Betting Forum
MMA Betting Book


Sunday, 31 March 2013

There's no such thing as free money (Well in this case there is.)

Today I will be writing an article about arbitrage betting. Some people will be familiar with this concept and some people will not be. What is arbitrage betting?
Arbitrage betting is placing a number (2 or more) of bets on the same event to ensure a profit no matter what the outcome. We do this by capitalizing on the difference in bookmakers odds. The best way I can show you see this is on the upcoming UFC bout between Jon Jones and Chael Sonnen. I will use the American system of betting odds as it is fairly simple to demonstrate.
Last week Chael Sonnen was available to back at +760 on Sportsbet whilst Jon Jones was available to bet at -650 on Sportsbook. Wagering $100 on Sonnen would return $760 whilst wagering $650 on Jon Jones would return $100. This would leave us with two outcomes. A Sonnen victory would return $760 from his victory and lose us the $650 on Jones showing a total profit of $110, A Jon Jones victory would lose us the $100 on Sonnen but return the $100 on putting us break even. So effectively we get a free bet of $110, you would need a to wager $750 but there is virtually no risk to this money.
I say virtually no risk because in MMA there is a small chance of a draw and depending on  the bookmakers rules this could lose you your stake. In a five round fight between these two competitors I would say that a draw happens less then 2%  however it is still a possibility so what could we do to overcome this small obstacle. Judging that Jones number at least -800 upwards on most other sites we could have backed him at -650 and then looked to lay (If you are unfamiliar with lay bets click here) him on a betting exchange such as Betdaq or Betfair nearer to the time of the fight where we would expect his odds to be inline with most of the other bookmakers at around -800. All the betting lines can be verified here

Arbitrage betting can be a great way to make some risk free profits if done correctly. I would recommend the following sites for more information on arbitrage betting: This site has a great free ebook which covers arbitrage betting and how to prolong your arbitrage betting against bookmakers limiting or closing your account . This site features new arbitrage bets on a daily basis

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Thursday, 21 March 2013

World Series OF Fighting

I missed the last UFC event due to moving jobs and house which meant I didn't have an internet connection. But the second World Series of fighting event has a few betting opportunities.

On March the 23rd former UFC heavyweight champion Andrei "The pitbull" Arlovski takes on former welterweight fighter Antony "Rumble" Jonhson. If you bet this fight currently you could arbitrage for a small profit. With Arlovski available at +120 and Jonhnson at -110, check for current odds.

Both fighters are coming into this fight in good form with them both on 4 fight winning streaks against mid level opponents. Arlovski has the better technical boxing of the two and uses good footwork and angles behind a solid jab to damage his opponents and set up his power shots. Johnson is a good athlete and mixes up his striking well with both kicks and punches, he has 10 KO's with the latest being a highlight reel knockout of DJ Linderman. Arlovski has been knocked out 7 times in his career and Johnson certainly has the power to test his chin. Overall I would give the striking advantage to Arlovski as he is the more experienced striker of the two and is more fluid with his striking then Johnson.

Neither fighter is really known for their grappling but both are proficient in this aspect of mma with Johnson coming from a wrestling background and Arlovski from a Sambo background. It is difficult to gage how well Johnson's grappling ability will be against someone his own weight or even slightly bigger seen as how he is use to being the bigger man and having a strength advantage. Arlovski however has shown that he has a good grappling base and with a victory over established grappler Fabricio Werdum as evidence I would give Arlovski the edge here.

This is an interesting fight with quite a few unknown variables, the main one being how will Johnson perform at heavyweight? I believe that Arlovski has around a 60% chance of victory in this fight,. At his current best odds of +120 indicating a 45.5 probability I would advise a bet on Arlvoski.

Tuesday, 5 March 2013

UFC on Fuel TV thoughts

UFC on Fuel TV delivered an entertaining card with former Pride FC standout Wanderlei Silva delivering a great performance which brought back memories of the destructive force he was earlier in his career and showed that still has the ability to brutalize high level opponents. The one bet that I advised for the card was Struve inside the distance at odds of -117. This looked to be a good bet as Struve got himself into full mount on two occasions during the fight unfortunately he rushed his submission attempts and lost position when he had an advantage. In the third round Struve decided to imitate the fighting style of a seven foot pinata and was seemingly happy to let Hunt swing for the fences, this wasn't the best idea and Struve ended up getting KO'ed. 2-3 in my advised bets but sometimes that is the way betting goes . Will have some previews up soon for the upcoming UFC 158.

Thursday, 28 February 2013

Wanderlei Silva vs Stann

A highlight video of Wanderlai Silva to get people excited for Saturday's event. Won't be betting on the Silva vs Stann fight but should an awesome fight. Credit to youtube user rtinnin79 for making this video.

UFC on Fuel TV 8 finalized bets

Earlier on in the week I suggested betting on Stefan Struve providing the odds moved in the direction we wanted it to. He is currently available to back inside the distance at -117 which is good value and is I bet I would suggest making. Odds available here click on the props section.
I have looked over the card and the current odds but I was struggling to find any line that I could find significant value in. I considered Hector Lombard but at around -200 I don't see too much value. The Fukuda vs Tavares is an interesting one but I have a hard time picking a clear winner and the odds reflect that. A positive from this was that Fukuda was available to back at +105 at one point with Tavares also being available at +110 which enabled an arbitrage bet for guaranteed profit. For any readers that don't know the concept of an arbitrage bet I will be writing an article on that aspect of betting soon.

Rather then force another bet on this card I will just suggest betting Struve inside the distance. It is important not to bet for the sake the sake of betting as this is not a positive habit that leads to profitable betting. As MMA events become more prevalent, with fights available to bet on almost a weekly basis then it becomes easier to hold off betting as I know that there will be value to be found in the near future. This is something that is important for anyone that wants to make money and relates to taking your betting seriously, don't bet just because you enjoy the rush, make sure that there is value in your bets as this will make you a long term winning bettor.

Tuesday, 26 February 2013

Are you a gambler or an Investor?

I have noticed that there is almost a parallel reaction between telling someone you are/want to be a professional gambler/investor. I remember telling one of my friends that my ambition was to be a professional gambler it was met with a snort of derision and humour.
'Make sure you have a back up plan."
"That's risky business."
"Is that a real job?"
Were some of his comments. Even after I explained how I had two years of success in my previous betting. I explained how I approached my bets with diligent research and analysis.I explained the concept of finding value in odds. My friends mind was already made up GAMBLING IS BAD.
When speaking to my friend a few months later I told him that I had decided I wanted to be a professional investor and that I had already had some previous successes with my investments.This news was met with a nod of approval from my friend.
"Smart move."
"There is a lot of money to be made if your sharp."
"That's a solid career path."

So what does a professional gambler do?
He/She analyzes their chosen sports market and invests where they predict there is value.
What does a investor do?
He/She analyzes a chosen market and invests where they predict there is value.
So really the only difference between the two is the public perception of the word "gambler" and "Investor."
There are both profitable and unprofitable "Investors" as are there "gamblers", bad and good, intelligent and unintelligent. I am not on a crusade to promote the word "gambler", to purge it from the murky depths that it dwells. All I would say that is whether you would call yourself an "investor" or a "gambler" just make sure that you are good at what you do. Don't wildly gamble take pride in what you are doing, respect it and take the time to research your bets.