Sunday, 31 March 2013

There's no such thing as free money (Well in this case there is.)

Today I will be writing an article about arbitrage betting. Some people will be familiar with this concept and some people will not be. What is arbitrage betting?
Arbitrage betting is placing a number (2 or more) of bets on the same event to ensure a profit no matter what the outcome. We do this by capitalizing on the difference in bookmakers odds. The best way I can show you see this is on the upcoming UFC bout between Jon Jones and Chael Sonnen. I will use the American system of betting odds as it is fairly simple to demonstrate.
Last week Chael Sonnen was available to back at +760 on Sportsbet whilst Jon Jones was available to bet at -650 on Sportsbook. Wagering $100 on Sonnen would return $760 whilst wagering $650 on Jon Jones would return $100. This would leave us with two outcomes. A Sonnen victory would return $760 from his victory and lose us the $650 on Jones showing a total profit of $110, A Jon Jones victory would lose us the $100 on Sonnen but return the $100 on putting us break even. So effectively we get a free bet of $110, you would need a to wager $750 but there is virtually no risk to this money.
I say virtually no risk because in MMA there is a small chance of a draw and depending on  the bookmakers rules this could lose you your stake. In a five round fight between these two competitors I would say that a draw happens less then 2%  however it is still a possibility so what could we do to overcome this small obstacle. Judging that Jones number at least -800 upwards on most other sites we could have backed him at -650 and then looked to lay (If you are unfamiliar with lay bets click here) him on a betting exchange such as Betdaq or Betfair nearer to the time of the fight where we would expect his odds to be inline with most of the other bookmakers at around -800. All the betting lines can be verified here

Arbitrage betting can be a great way to make some risk free profits if done correctly. I would recommend the following sites for more information on arbitrage betting: This site has a great free ebook which covers arbitrage betting and how to prolong your arbitrage betting against bookmakers limiting or closing your account . This site features new arbitrage bets on a daily basis

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Thursday, 21 March 2013

World Series OF Fighting

I missed the last UFC event due to moving jobs and house which meant I didn't have an internet connection. But the second World Series of fighting event has a few betting opportunities.

On March the 23rd former UFC heavyweight champion Andrei "The pitbull" Arlovski takes on former welterweight fighter Antony "Rumble" Jonhson. If you bet this fight currently you could arbitrage for a small profit. With Arlovski available at +120 and Jonhnson at -110, check for current odds.

Both fighters are coming into this fight in good form with them both on 4 fight winning streaks against mid level opponents. Arlovski has the better technical boxing of the two and uses good footwork and angles behind a solid jab to damage his opponents and set up his power shots. Johnson is a good athlete and mixes up his striking well with both kicks and punches, he has 10 KO's with the latest being a highlight reel knockout of DJ Linderman. Arlovski has been knocked out 7 times in his career and Johnson certainly has the power to test his chin. Overall I would give the striking advantage to Arlovski as he is the more experienced striker of the two and is more fluid with his striking then Johnson.

Neither fighter is really known for their grappling but both are proficient in this aspect of mma with Johnson coming from a wrestling background and Arlovski from a Sambo background. It is difficult to gage how well Johnson's grappling ability will be against someone his own weight or even slightly bigger seen as how he is use to being the bigger man and having a strength advantage. Arlovski however has shown that he has a good grappling base and with a victory over established grappler Fabricio Werdum as evidence I would give Arlovski the edge here.

This is an interesting fight with quite a few unknown variables, the main one being how will Johnson perform at heavyweight? I believe that Arlovski has around a 60% chance of victory in this fight,. At his current best odds of +120 indicating a 45.5 probability I would advise a bet on Arlvoski.

Tuesday, 5 March 2013

UFC on Fuel TV thoughts

UFC on Fuel TV delivered an entertaining card with former Pride FC standout Wanderlei Silva delivering a great performance which brought back memories of the destructive force he was earlier in his career and showed that still has the ability to brutalize high level opponents. The one bet that I advised for the card was Struve inside the distance at odds of -117. This looked to be a good bet as Struve got himself into full mount on two occasions during the fight unfortunately he rushed his submission attempts and lost position when he had an advantage. In the third round Struve decided to imitate the fighting style of a seven foot pinata and was seemingly happy to let Hunt swing for the fences, this wasn't the best idea and Struve ended up getting KO'ed. 2-3 in my advised bets but sometimes that is the way betting goes . Will have some previews up soon for the upcoming UFC 158.